In short, countries must start curbing emissions pronto, says the UN Emissions Gap Report 2024.

“Climate crunch time is here,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.

“We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before, starting right now before the next climate pledges.”

If not, she warns, the 1.5°C goal in the Paris Agreement could be history, with the two degrees Celsius target on life support.

Climate goals could evaporate

Unveiled at the COP16 biodiversity conference, the report tracks the gap between current commitments and where we need to be to limit warming to well below 2°C, pursuing 1.5°C as per the 2015 Paris Agreement goals.

The 1.5°C goal could be gone soon unless we cut 42% of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in our nationally determined contributions and back it up with quick action.

These contributions outline steps to cut emissions, adapt to climate impacts like drought and flooding, secure funds, and update plans every five years, next up in early 2025 before COP30 in Brazil.

‘Teetering on planetary tightrope’

Without sharp emission cuts, the world faces a catastrophic 3.1°C rise, says the report, as governments lag on promises.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres links rising emissions to more frequent climate disasters.

“We are teetering on a planetary tightrope,” he warned in a video message. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge into climate disaster, with the poorest suffering the most.

Affordable technologies can help

The COP29 UN Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, should kickstart ambitious new plans, he said, marking the countdown for countries to deliver new climate action plans by next year.

“Governments have agreed to align these plans with 1.5 degrees,” he said.

This requires cutting all greenhouse gases and pushing progress in every sector, urging G20 economies to lead.

The UN chief is hopeful. “Today’s report shows affordable technologies can achieve the emissions reductions needed by 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5°C limit, but only if ambition and support surge.”

Clean energy can change trajectory

The report reveals potential to slash emissions by up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ by 2030, about 52% of 2023 emissions, and by 41 gigatons by 2035, helping meet the 1.5°C target.

Boosting solar and wind energy could contribute 27% of the reduction by 2030 and 38% by 2035. Forest conservation might provide 20% of necessary reductions in both years.

Other strategies include enhancing energy efficiency, electrifying sectors, and transitioning from fossil fuels in buildings, transport, and industry.

However, achieving even part of this requires unprecedented international cooperation and a comprehensive approach from governments, focusing on maximizing benefits while minimizing trade-offs.